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1/30/15

The Friday OT: Radiohead; How to disappear completely

Live version, on the Jools Holland show:



Brilliant live band.



Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) (EXK): There's no point

I really don't see the point in owning this. Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) (EXK) announced its new reserves/resource estimates plus its 2015 guidance in this NR yesterday, which (unusually) came with a ConfCall (listen to it here) and after doing all the number thing and listening carefully to the company's arguments (twice, replay this morning) I'm left with the impression that the only people who can benefit from the existence of EDR are the people who work there.

Now that's not such a bad thing (aside from the overstuffed paypackets of Brad Cooke and the assembled directors) as I'm all for providing gainful employment to Latin Americans. But why should a shareholder own a company that bases its reserves/resources on $18/oz silver and $1,260/oz gold when it's already shown that it can't make a profit on those numbers? I mean, it may see cost reductions in the pipeline but the hard fact is that in 3q14, when its realized price for both metals was higher than that (U$18.78/oz Ag and U$1,278/oz Au) it returned an operating loss of $3.6m and a net loss of $11.386m for the quarter.

Also, when it comes to the future Brad Cooke told us on the CC that the company "had to crack the nut" on El Cubo and I was "Whaaaaat?", because this is the same nut they promised  to crack in 2013. And 2014. This company is pure jam tomorrow, but when it comes to execution it never lives up to the sweet talk.

Seriously, what's the point in owning a loss-making silver company at the current price deck? In fact, even if it breaks even, even if it runs a modest profit, it still has a crapload of financial debt on its books (oh...they're promising to get that down to $25m by end 2q15...we'll see). And that's the bottom line here; EDR and many other silvercos in Mexico are running to stand still, with all that mining and production and busy ness that shows nothing for shareholders. Nothing at all. 


The latest from Travel Past 50

The website of husband and wife team Kristen Henning and Tom Bartel has been a personal favourite for quite a while but it has to be stated, over the last year or so their work has gone from very good to absolute top class world standard travel journalism. What the thrust behind this quality jump might be I do not know, but these days anything that pops up on my RSS from Travel Past 50 gets immediate eyeballs, the two posts today no exception.

This from Kristen, another report on their recent stay in Florence/Firenze, Italy. Tons of info, plus insight and tips on how to get the best out of your visit there. And the photos.

This from Tom, a post on where they stayed last night, a Bedouin encampment in Wadi Rum, Jordan. The two photos included in this are simply beautiful, even better than Tom's usual high standards (as regulars know, he's serious about his photography).

Those links are there because if you click on them you get to enjoy the contents, too. Make your Friday a more pleasant experience by doing so.

Cochilco's copper price, 2011 to 2016

On the subject, yesterday in Chile we had the presentation of the Cochilco Market Tendencies report, with Cochilco being the world's number one copper producer country's copper beancounter people and the Market Tendencies report their main annual thingy, which invariably comes at the end of January each year. 

Cochilco forecasts copper to sell at an average of $2.85/lb this year, and $2.80/lb in 2016. That first number is down from their previous guess of $3/lb in 2015. Here's a chart with numbers on it:



So even if their guesses for the next two years are correct, which means copper recovers somewhat from its present level, you can easily see the type of price drop faced by the industry in that graphic.

If you'd like your own copy of the 34 page Cochilco report, it's right here. 

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/copper ratio:



A whole range of chartists currently insisting that copper "cannot stay this low" and it's basically because of this chart. Which they did not predict and therefore causes them psychological pain. Because, we're told "this ratio cna't sty this way" and "something's got to give" and mutterings of that ilk.

Yes it can stay up there. Copper can sell at $2.50/lb for the rest of the year and gold at $1.3k/oz or so or copper at $2.30 and gold $1.2k., or $2.70/lb and $1.4k. etc). Forget the stupid squiggly line, tell me why those two components cannot possibly remain steady at their new price brackets.

One thing's for sure; whatever gold and copper do in 2015, it won't be because some randomwalk charty dude who makes a living by selling his snake oil feels the ratio chart is esthetically displeasing.

1/29/15

The whole Clive fisticuffs thing makes the Financial Post

Right here. It also backs up the IKN version of events below, though clearly with slightly different witnesses and their track on the story. We liked...
"You expect that behavior from a bunch of 19-year olds not the CEO of a public company".
...in particular.


The three rules of Toronto Fight Club

1) You do not talk about Fight Club.
2) You DO NOT talk about Fight Club.
3) You DO NOT talk about Fight Club when IKN is listening.

According to eyewitnesses and assorted gossips who have busily exchanged with IKN this morning, here's the apparent best-fit of what went down between Daniel Earle of TD Sec and Clive Johnson of B2Gold (BTG) (BTO.to). The 10-20 was the bar at Modus Ristorante, in high falutin' downtown financial district Toronto. Clive Johnson, CEO and head honcho of B2Gold, found himself chatting pleasantly to one of the young and attractive waitresses there after having paid and, significantly, tipped pretty heavily. At some point Daniel Earle, who is by nature a mild mannered and relaxed kind of person, quipped to Clive in what was supposed to be a humourous manner (and I'm going to put this in speech marks even though it might not be the exact quote word for word, because if it wasn't it was darned close), "You know she's only talking to you because of your wallet."

Clive took this the wrong way and it all went downhill quickly. After replying with "What the f___ did you say?"* the CEO of the multi-billion dollar mining company B2Gold took it upon himself to punch Earle in the face. He then paused and punched him a second time, again in the face.

Daniel Earle then punched Johnson once, in the face, and Clive went down. That was the end of the fight. 

The next day Clive was seen marketing in the meeting rooms and by-ways of Toronto with a well-formed black eye and broken glasses.

And that's your lot, except for three footnotes (and one of them really is a footnote).

a) Clive Johnson has been telling others roughly the same story, except for one small detail: he says that Daniel Earle threw the first punch. As we understand Modus has closed-circuit TV cameras and recorded the episode, if things ever come to a more formal head we'll get to find out which version is closest to the truth. For what it's worth and from what I've heard today, the most doubtful version of the story is the one being put forward by CEO Johnson.

b) Clive Johnson has previous form with this kind of behaviour and it tends to be at evening social occasions when...errrr...the wine floweth. Isn't it about time somebody in a position of executive power at BTO took him aside and had a quiet little chat about his habits?

c) And now the foot footnote. By some sort of bizarre coincidence, one of the previous occasions when Clive Johnson went tired and emotional (as they say in Private Eye) was last year at a mining bash, when he almost came to blows with John McCluskey of Alamos Gold. Now McCluskey may not be everybody's cup of tea as a person, but he's also known to be disabled with his leg problem. So maybe if Johnson can't calm down and be a normal person in future, he should at least try picking on somebody with four limbs and make it a fair fight.


*The F-word has letters removed because some brokerages have complained they can't read IKN posts due to in-house profanity filters. Normally I'd use it without caring a jot, as you know.

PS: There has been a very slight edit made ot this post, regarding personal information on a minor matter that's not particularly connected to the main story. So if one part of the text seems not to make total sense, that's why. It's no biggie either way
.

Andrew Sullivan is giving up blogging

I'm exactly 23 hours and thirty minutes late to this news, but it deserves IKN's insignificant finger pointing towards it as well. Andrew Sullivan is going to give up blogging after 15 years of The Dish (in its various incarnations). This CJR tribute gives some flavour to the importance Sullivan had and has in blogworld.

After running this humble corner of cyberspace for less than half that time and even with a tiny fraction of the readership Sullivan has and fully deserves, I fully vouch for the reasons he gives for walking away. IKN salutes you, sir. Andrew Sullivan, the master blogger of them all.