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10/1/14

Radius Gold (RDU.v) NAV vs market cap



What do you get for each 8.5c share of Radius Gold (RDU.v)?

  • 7.6c worth of BTO.to shares* at current prices 
  • 0.3c worth of FCV.v shares at current prices
  • 0.2c worth of MED.v shares at current prices
  • 2.7c worth of cash estimated to end 4q14 (including G&A burn and current small drill program expense)
  • No debt.

In other words, 10.9c of current assets for each and every 8.5c worth of share, not including fixed assets, concessions and even assuming the current drill program at Blue Hill Idaho returns 100% dusters. Nothing from Tambor either, just the straight liquid assets give you a 28% premium to NAV. And yes, you're right, that's the kind of thing that happens at market bottoms.

Now all we need to do is convince Ridgway to liquidate and distribute. Piece of cake.

Disclosure: No position in RDU.v, but thinking about it.

*i checked, RDU still hasn't sold a one since its 2q14 filing



Franco Nevada $FNV and RBC bought deal fall-out news

Word arrives from secret sources that RBC Capital Markets, lead runner for Franco Nevada's (FNV) August 2014 bought deal, still has 1.3m shares in inventory after failing to shift all its allotment. As RBC took them on at U$59.75 and right-here-right-now FNV is trading at U$48.98, that puts RBC in the hole to the tune of U$14m.

No news from the other book participants, CIBC and BMO.

Much upside overhang in your medium-term future, Pierre?

Goldbugs on Greenspan

2002: Greenspan's an idiot
2003: Greenspan's an idiot
2004: Greenspan's an idiot
2005: Greenspan's an idiot
2006: Greenspan's an idiot
2007: Greenspan's an idiot
2008: Greenspan's an idiot
2009: Greenspan's an idiot
2010: Greenspan's an idiot
2011: Greenspan's an idiot
2012: Greenspan's an idiot
2013: Greenspan's an idiot

And then , in late September 2014, Alan Greenspan makes some vaguely complimentary comments on gold in Foreign Affairs at a time when the gold price is under pressure and gold commentary experts* will take any lifeline they can get in order to keep their little sheepdip scam going.

2014: Oh, isn't that Greenspan guy just wonderful?!

Goldbugs are wankers.


*oxymoron alert

A well-reasoned article on the bull case for the US Dollar

Last night Iwnattos linked it and told us to go read it because it's good. As I always obey my superiors I did just that and heartily concur.

This note by Louis Gave of Gavekal does a great job in setting out why the bull run in the US Dollar has only just begun, with plenty more to come. Bound to upset the hard money types, they (and you) still need to read it in order to consider the case. It takes in fundamental background, considers the effects of the shift in energy use in the USA (good points), considers historical patterns of previous cycles and also appeals diretcly to what I've noticed about the USD these last few days and weeks; nothing stops it. That and more.

Click right here and see for yourself, it's not a difficult read but it covers all the bases. The essence of strong blogging and today's main reco for bizheads. Go now.

Charts of the day are...

...five year price and five year LME stocks for zinc:



These things are rarely exact correlations, but those two aren't a bad match.

Posted while your humble scribe does his think zinc thing. Window open, no decision yet.

9/30/14

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: Judge Griesa "senile"

During her address to the nation this evening, CFK said this about this week's decision by judge Thomas Griesa to hold Argentina in contempt of court:

"It's naive to think that this [decision] is merely the work of a senile judge".

Which may or may not be true, but it's one helluva quote.

UPDATE: That's one of many "pearls" (as they call quotable lines in Argentina) from the speech, here's a list of the best (in Spanish). 


Brazil elections: What you're seeing unfold today, IKN Weekly subscribers read in August

OK, admittedly August 31st, but IKN277 ran an analysis of the Brazil presidentials on that date, right at the moment when Marina Silva was getting all the fuss and attention for her poll surge which put her in the lead in any second round run-off with Dilma Rousseff. Here's the main chunk of the script from that piece:

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If, as is now extremely likely, no candidate gets 50% +1 vote in round one, we go to a second round run-off between the top two on October 26th. The headline from Datafolha on that eventuality is that if it were Rousseff versus Silva tomorrow, voter intention is 50% Silva, 40% Rousseff. In other words, Marina Silva has some serious momentum all of a sudden, it’s coming at the right time and the current administration is now worried.

For the record, I fully expect that:

1)     Dilma and Marina go to a run-off
2)     Dilma wins the October 26th decider

It’s one thing to have a lead in a projected vote, quite another have the massive, efficient and media-savvy PT party bearing down on a single candidate from a party that doesn’t have the national reach or resources of the PT. In Silva the PSB has its real chance, but she’s also well-known to the PT (she was a minister in Lula da Silva’s government before splitting away) and they’ll know exactly how to attack her credibility. Indeed that’s already started (6) with Rousseff going after Silva this weekend on her plans to scrap certain government subsidies, calling her plans “adventurist, shady and backward” as well as hinting of corrupt goings on in the background (never a difficult image to call upon in Brazilian politics). The Brazilian economy currently slipping into ‘technical recession’ (one monthly reading under 0% just out) adds an extra element to the fight as Silva will be able to blame PT, while the experienced and economy-savvy government will be able to strike fear into the populace by showing Silva’s party as woefully lacking in ability to run a country at such a critical time. The final factor is the Brazilian tendency for a tactical protest vote when stakes aren’t high, but when it comes to the crunch the country gets serious: It’s not that surprising to see Silva running neck and neck with Rousseff at this point, nor is it so strange to see her getting the best of any round two intention vote at the moment. Most of Brazil already understands that they’re going to see Silva vs Rousseff on October 26th and that’s when things are serious, until then it’s not such a bad idea to send a stark warning to Dilma and the PT party. Come the moment when people have to put crosses next to names, things change.




Cartoon of the day

Week. Year. It's from The Poke and entitled "This Comic Perfectly Encapsulates Twitter", but it's also the precise and exact reason:

1) Comments are no longer available at IKN
2) I reply to hatemailers in the way I do*


That's just wonderful.

*lots of swear words, then encourage you to reply and make the mail really long before telling you i'll never open any mail you send and then permanently block your mail address, you fuckwit